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Strategy

Feb 27 2018

Data Quality – Screening Funds and ETFs

Here’s a great illustration of why you need dividend adjustments when analyzing funds and ETFs. QLENX (a lower risk AQR managed long short fund) has been popular with FastTrackers for a few years and it would be totally off your radar if you’re using Yahoo, CNBC, Fidelity, or any number of other free data outfits for charting and ranking.

Only FastTrack is adjusting for the 12/19/2017 dividends. Adjusting for dividends, a simple UPI ranking puts QLENX on top for the past three years. Without adjustments, QLENX’s risk/ return profile is misrepresented and pushed to #644 in the rank.

The black FastTrack chart illustrates the difference pretty clearly. The large dip towards the end of 2017 is the div payout of QLENX. The NAV drops, share price is reduced, but without accounting for the div payout you’ll get incorrect charting and ranking.

This is what FastTrack is known for. We’ve been providing this high quality, dividend adjusted data to professionals and individuals for over 27 years. Download a trial or give us a call.

QLENX in Red; SPY in green; Yahoo’s QLENX data in yellow; Three year chart; Feb 2015- Feb 2018
FastTrack’s dividend adjusted data shows the proper ranking.
Totally bogus ranking when data is not corrected for dividend payouts

 
No Divs – Incorrect chart from Finace.Yahoo.com

No Divs – Incorrect chart from CNBC.com

 
No Divs – Incorrect chart from Fidelity.com

Written by FT Cloud · Categorized: Data News, Strategy · Tagged: dividend adjustment, dividends, investing, knowledge base, support

Feb 22 2018

How to invest in Artificial Intelligence

artificial intelligence

There’s lots of buzz surrounding AI (artificial intelligence). It’s changing the world as we know it and also is showing strong out performance over the past year. Here’s a list of AI related names in the FastTrack database.

The charts below shows the relative strength chart vs SPY of the two most popular ETFs, BOTZ and HACK. BOTZ is showing nice strength vs SPY while HACK is mixed to losing steam. Do AI names have more room to run or have they given us all they’ve got?  Love to hear your comments.

BOTZ - Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF
BOTZ vs SPY – 1 year Relative Strength (Feb 2017 to Feb 2018)
HACK - Pure ETF ISE Cyber Security
HACK vs SPY – 1 year Relative Strength (Feb 2017 to Feb 2018)

Artificial Intelligence
AIEQ – AI Powered Equity ETF
ARKQ – ARK Industrial Innovation ETF
BOTZ – Global Robotics & Artfcl Int’llgnc ETF
HACK – Pure ETF ISE Cyber Security
ROBO – ExTrd Concepts Robo Glbl Robotics&Autmtn
SOCL – Global X Mgnt ETF Social Media
TCHF – iShares ETF Edge MSCI Multifactor Techn
XT – iShares ETF Exponential Technologies
DTEC – ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF *
ROBT – First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF *
BUZ – BUZZ US Sentiment Leaders ETF *

* Well be added to FastTrack database by end of February 2018

Written by FT Cloud · Categorized: Data News, Strategy · Tagged: ai, relative strength

Feb 12 2018

How are low volatility ETFs holding up?

How are low volatility ETFs holding up?

Over the past 5+ years, a variety of low volatility equity ETFs have launched with rapid growth. In light of the recent market volatility, how are the funds holding up? The top three are listed below and have a combined AUM of $24 billion:

  • SPHD – PowerShares ETF S&P 500 High Div Low Vol
  • SPLV – PowerShares ETF S&P 500 Low Volatility
  • USVM – iShares ETF MSCI USA Minimum Volatility

The FT Cloud SpreadSheet below highlights that the dividend adjusted stand deviations are in fact lower than SPY. So, the funds are producing the described lower volatility.

But what do we think about recent max drawdown numbers and the trailing 12 month returns? The picture below highlights the trailing 12 months total returns and recent draw down. While the ETFs are producing only 80-90% of SPY’s monthly volatility, they’re producing 90%+ of the drawdowns and a mere 20-80% of the returns.

Over the longer term (3 year, 5 year, and common start date), the ETFs are showing consistent lower SD while maintaining comparable annualized returns. See the three year, 5 year, and common start date views below.

Are these worth holding in your portfolio? We’ve love to hear your thoughts.

Three Years (Feb 2015- Feb 2018)
Five Years Feb (2013- Feb 2018)
Common Start (Oct 2012- Feb 2018)
One Year Total Return (Feb 2017 – Feb 2018)

Written by FT Cloud · Categorized: Market Commentary, Strategy · Tagged: commentary, etf, investing, low vol

Dec 09 2015

Energy MLPs – What’s the deal?

MLP-listMaster limited partnerships (MLPs) have been all over the news lately. Oil and natural gas are down significantly this year, and in return, MLPs have been clobbered. (The popular AMLP – Alerian MLP is down over 35% year to date.)

MLPs operate a toll road business model and produce large, dependable dividends. With interest rate so low, for so long, MLPs have had increased popularity with FastTrackers over the past 5+ years.

This post will not get into whether we’re at a bottom or if they’ve got another leg down on tap. I’ll leave that to the talking heads on CNBC. In this post we’ll look at how to use the family sieve to build a family that contains all the many different MLP asset in the FastTrack database. Since MLP investments can exist as funds, etfs, and stocks, we’ll have to combine multiple families to get the complete list of all MLP assets in the FastTrack database.

What questions will we answer?

Once we build the MLP family, we’ll have a good list of tickers to do a relative analysis to answer questions like:

  • Which MLPs drew down the most?
  • Did all MLPs draw down?
  • Did MLPs mutual funds do better than ETFs?
  • Are stock based MLPs riskier?
  • Etc

Master Limited Partnership Basics

But first, let’s get some MLP basics. MLPs are the publicly traded partnerships that own, operate, and build energy infrastructure assets such as pipelines, storage facilities, and processing plants. The assets MLPs own are like a national highway where cars pay a “toll” to travel from state to state. Instead of cars, MLPs transport hydrocarbons and charge a “toll” to transport them from upstream producers and the end user.

MLPs charge based on the volume of product they move, so the “tolls” they charge tends not to fluctuate with the price of commodities. In order to grow, MLPs essentially have to acquire infrastructure or build it. In the recent low interest rate and easy credit enviornment, debt has been the preferred method to finance MLP growth. MLPs add debt to expand and keep paying out earning as dividends. With rates on the rise (in particular junk yields), this business model has come under stress and caused heavy draw downs across the industry.

How to build the MLP Family.

Familiy-Tree-and-SieveOpen the First, open spreadsheet “Load Family” screen. The Load Family window displays a treeview of all the FT Cloud families on the left side and a sieve to collect and funnel those families on the left.Familiy-Tree-and-Sieve-Search Next, Since we don’t know where in the tree MLPs exist, we’ll search the family tree for all families that the name contain the word “partnership.”

    1. enter “partnership” in search text box
    2. select the “family” search option (this will search all family names)
    3. press search button to display results

The search results show a family under the Funds & ETFs >> Objective >> Commodities >> Limited Partnerships. Double click the name to load the tickers into the right side list.

The limited partnership family gives us all the MLP funds and ETFs. Now we want to include all of the stock based MLPs. To do this, we’ll use an alternate search method. 
Familiy-Tree-and-Sieve-Search2We’ll search all families that contain a well known MLP stocks, Kinder Morgan (KMI). If a stock MLP family exists, it definitely contains this well known company. As the search results show, there are a handful of families that contain KMI, but the one we want is the Stocks >> Industry >> Oil & Gas Midstream.

Now, we’ll SINGLE CLICK the family to highlight it. Then we will click the “add” button in the upper center/right to add the Oil & Gas Midstream tickers to the ticker list in the lower right (previously loaded from the “Limited partnership” family.

We can repeat these steps any number of times with other keywords or tickers to make sure we have all MLP tickers. For now, we’ve got 149 MLP ticker in the combined family list, so click the “load” button in the lower right to load the 149 tickers onto the spreadsheet.

Now that we have all the MLP tickers on the spreadsheet. We can rank, sort, chart, and do other relative analysis work to determine industry trends, best of class funds, out performance, etc.

Written by FT Cloud · Categorized: Family, Market Commentary, Strategy

Oct 09 2015

Correlation Study – Investing in Fear

Investing in fearWe had a great tech support call come in today. A long time FastTracker has been “tracking the VIX” and looking to get direct exposure to the index. He asked, “what’s the ticker to buy the VIX?”

Well, the answer is simple, but first let’s go through some background. The VIX is an index, more specifically its the CBOE Volatility Index (FastTrack ticker VIX-X). The vix usually referred to as the “fear index” and typically tracks opposite to the overall market. An investor would look for exposure to the VIX to capitalize on market downtrends.

That being said, the VIX is still an index. So… you cannot buy it directly. You must buy an ETF or mutual fund that tracks the VIX index. So, how do you use FT Cloud or FT4web to find these ETFs? Its simple, we’ll do a correlation analysis with the spreadsheet. We’re going to look for all and any fund in the FastTrack database that is highly correlated to the CBOE VIX index.

Note: We could search ticker names, google search, or something similar. But if you’ve used FastTrack techniques and products, you’re well aware that names are some of the least informative aspects of a security. Just because you call yourself a “VIX ETF,” doesn’t mean you are a VIX ETF. The score board (past performance) says it all. 

Here’s a step by step to find the ETF that track the VIX.

  1. First we’re going to load all the ETFs in the FastTrack database. Log in to FT Cloud, click on the FT Cloud spreadsheet tab, in the upper right corner, click the “load family” button. Investing in the VIX
  2. Next, navigate to the All ETF family. Its located under the Funds > Companies > ETFs > All ETFs. Double click the family, then click load in the lower right of the load window.Investing in the VIX
  3. Now, to run our correlation study, we’re going to find all the ETFs that have a high correlation to the CBOE VIX Index. In FastTrack the CBOE VIX index uses the ticker VIX-X (We used the ticker search feature to find the index). The correlation column on the spreadsheet correlates to the “benchmark” field. So, we’re going to type VIX-X into the benchmark field and change our dates to a one year time period (this example uses a one year correlation study… but you can alter the date ranges for different studies)Investing in the VIX
  4. After we press the “Compute” button in the upper left corner, the spreadsheet will fill with the calculations we need for the study. Next, we are going to click the “Corr” header to sort the spread sheet from highest correlation to lowest correlation. (Click the Correlation check box in the “stats” list on the right hand side to show the correlation column on the spreadsheet.)Investing in the VIX
  5. There we have it. While there’s no perfect 100% correlation, we get pretty close with 91%-88% range over one year.

So, to summarize, to find an ETF, or in this case ETFs and ETNs, that track the CBOE VIX index, we do a simple correlation study. This study shows us that we don’t have an instrument that tracks the CBOE VIX index exactly, but we’ve got a handful of ETFs and ETNs that get pretty darn close.

Results: The we derived the following one year correlations to FT ticker VIX-X

  • VIXY – ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures- 91%
  • VIIX- VelocityShares VIX ST ETN – 90.89%
  • UVXY – ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures – 90.59%
  • TVIX – VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN – 89.53%

Written by FT Cloud · Categorized: Market Commentary, Strategy · Tagged: CBOE, correlation, etf, ft4web, spreadsheet, VIX

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